The Hindu

To the outside world, Chinaseeks to project a picture ofmonolithic unity behind President Xi Jinping’s highly centralised leadership. However, mediatropes point to a greater scrutinyof his role and leadership style, especially during the early stages ofthe COVID19 outbreak in Wuhan.Reports have surfaced alleging delays in reporting facts, conflictinginstructions and tight censorship.Observers have drawn parallelsbetween Mr. Xi and his powerfulpredecessors, Mao Zedong andDeng Xiaoping, perhaps a tad unfairly to both the iconic architectsof the People’s Republic of China(PRC). A timeline of changeMao presided over the founding ofthe PRC in 1949. He consolidatedhis leadership during the LongMarch in the mid1930s. Despitehis many detractors, he remainedthe undisputed leader of China until his death on September 9, 1976even if, towards the end, it was theGang of Four, led by his wife JiangQing, which had usurped power inhis name. Mao banished his adversaries frequently, whether it wasLiu Shaoqi, Lin Biao, or even DengXiaoping. Mao’s reign after thefounding of the PRC lasted 27years. By comparison, the 67yearold Xi Jinping has been at the helmfor just under eight years. Deng Xiaoping, the paramountleader who never held the posts ofeither Head of State or Head of Government, changed China’s economic destiny with bold and farsighted policy shifts, ushering inthe Four Modernisations of agriculture, industry, defence, andscience and technology. The opendoor policy, beginning the late1970s, enabled China to emerge asthe world’s largest recipient of foreign direct investment and atrade behemoth.Deng generally favoured a collegial form of decisionmaking inconsultation with a clutch of senior leaders – the Party’s “Eight Elders”. Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang, both successive GeneralSecretaries of the CPC, were forlong Deng’s “left and right hands”,but when they were perceived asdeviating from the CPC’s line, theywere packed off ignominiously bythe party elders led by Deng. From1990 until his death in 1997, Deng’sonly title was that of the HonoraryChairman of the Bridge Association of China. Yet, he remained theunquestioned leader, wieldinggreat power even in his dotage,long after his successor Jiang Zemin had assumed the top posts.Spotlight on XiThe history of the CPC suggeststhat Mr. Xi wields less power thaneither Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping. He perhaps evokes more fearthan respect on account of hisruthless antigraft campaign thathas brought down even highranking People’s Liberation Army(PLA) generals and Politburomembers. In the consensusdrivensystem of the CPC developed afterthe Cultural Revolution, it was notuncommon to target the gofers ofrivals, but top Party and PLA leaders were generally considered inviolable to avoid retribution whenfortunes changed. In contrast, Mr.Xi  has put behind bars “tigers”such as PLA Generals Xu Caihouand Guo Boxiong, political heavyweights such as Bo Xilai, ZhouYongkang and Sun Zhengcai, besides thousands of “flies” — venallowerranking cadres. The question is not whether but when disgruntled forces might challengeMr. Xi’s leadership. Since reining in the pandemicin China, the Chinese economyhas had a head start, but it is clearly not out of the woods. Economichardship could spark off publicdissent and harsher security measures. Moreover, a military confrontation with the United Statesleading to a “loss of face”, however limited the engagement, is arisk that Mr. Xi can ill afford. Indignation could lead the Chinese people, nurtured on hubris, to quicklydirect their ire against a leaderwho has abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s advice, so well captured inthe abbreviated aphorism, “hideour capacities and bide our time”.Having steered through a constitutional revision in early 2018that permits him to stay on in power beyond two terms, no doubt Mr.Xi would wish to preside over notjust the centenary celebrations ofthe CPC in 2021 but also the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the PLA in 2027.Trouble areasThe runup to the PLA’s centenaryharbours potential for instabilityand conflict, especially in relationto China’s avowed goal of reunification with Taiwan. Any use offorce by China could drag the U.S.,and perhaps its allies too, into themaelstrom, a view supported  bythe recent passage of the TaiwanAllies International Protection andEnhancement Initiative (TAIPEI)Act by the U.S. which seeks to interalia strengthen Taiwan’s de factoindependence. Contrary to tradition, Mr. Xi hasno anointed successor. When heassumes the mantle again beyondthe 20th CPC Congress in 2022, hewill thwart the ambitions of an entire “sixth generation” leadership.The only leader after Deng to havean extended stint was Jiang Zeminwho was General Secretary from19892002, President from 19932003 and Chairman of the CPC’sCentral Military Commission(CMC) from 19892004. Jiang hadclung on to the CMC post well afterthe baton had been passed to HuJintao as General Secretary of theCPC and President of the PRC. Hesurvived after loosening his gripon power perhaps because he didnot ride roughshod over other influential power centres. By comparison, Mr. Xi is “riding a tiger”.A recently leaked internal report of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations(CICIR), a thinktank affiliated tothe Ministry of State Security inBeijing, purportedly warns China’s top leadership of a rising tideof antiChina sentiment in thewake of the novel coronavirus outbreak, the worst since the Tiananmen incident of June 1989. Theleak may point to internal churnings or it could well be meant toconvey that China  remains undaunted. The analogy is also reminiscent of China’s shortlived isolation after Tiananmen. The hope, that an economicallyrich and prosperous China wouldgradually become liberal and democratic, has been belied. Whether the current U.S. pressure onChina for its controversial policiestowards Xinjiang, Tibet, HongKong, and Taiwan will inducechange remains to be seen.For now, the faceoff continuesand demands for accountabilityfor the outbreak are mounting,testing Mr. Xi’s leadership. Thealienation by China of a sizeablesection of the international community and public criticism of Mr.Xi, including in the Chinese socialmedia, suggest that the sun may

 

have reached its zenith

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